Emerging Disruptive Technologies
The military role of high-technology
The role that high-technology plays in military discourse is ambiguous: even the latest technology alone does not win battles and is often of little significance without appropriate strategies and well-trained soldiers. Nevertheless, there is a constant race for the latest successful technologies in the military. Some current and future military technology trends are considered as emerging and/or disruptive — that is, perceived of being novel, whose effect is unknown and/or (are believed to be) capable to overturn previous power structures and might allow weaker challengers to overtake the militaries of previously stronger players through innovations.
Technologies often named in this context include: hypersonic missiles, military robotics, remotely piloted as well as (semi-)autonomous weapon systems, nanotechnology, various forms of human enhancement, offensive and defensive cyber means, militarily used Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning, and even the military use of quantum computers.
Artificial Intelligence is rapidly being integrated into military forces, particularly in systems that support or even execute critical decision-making functions such as target identification, threat assessment, and engagement, as well as in increasingly autonomous and semi-autonomous weapon platforms. This development raises serious risks: AI-driven acceleration of operational tempos can compress decision time to machine speed, potentially eroding meaningful human control, while the “black box” nature of complex machine-learning models complicates accountability, predictability, and (legal) oversight. At the same time, AI offers significant opportunities for arms control and verification liike automated anomaly detection in large data sets or improved monitoring of compliance activities by automating verification surveillance data analysis, thus providing the technical foundations of future verification regimes.
Quantum technology is progressing despite ongoing uncertainty regarding its large-scale applicability, yet its potential impact especially on cryptography, an technical pillar for IT and information security and integrity would be profound if robust and scalable implementation proves feasible. Particularly quantum computing poses a systemic threat to existing cryptographic standards because many widely deployed encryption schemes rely on mathematical problems that are computationally infeasible for classical computers but would become efficiently solvable on sufficiently powerful quantum computers, thus undermining the security of (military) communications and strategic command structures, even for older, classified information. Conversely, quantum cryptographic approaches such as quantum key distribution could create fundamentally new possibilities for secure communication, though their deployment would require costly and technically demanding infrastructures, including dedicated quantum state transmission networks and specialized hardware systems.
The semiconductor sector -- particularly advanced AI chips and specialized hardware like acelerators, memory or network technology -- is becoming a decisive enabler of military innovation, as states increasingly rely on high-performance computing for autonomous systems, intelligence analysis, cyber operations, and decision-support tools, thereby elevating cutting-edge chip design and fabrication to strategic assets. This trend generates significant security risks: supply chain concentration, export controls as political leverage, and technological chokepoints can exacerbate geopolitical rivalries, while unequal access to advanced AI hardware may widen military capability gaps and intensify competition over technological dominance. At the same time, the geopolitical centrality of semiconductor production creates new opportunities for strategic political influence, confidence-building, and cooperative governance frameworks, as interdependence in design, manufacturing, and material access could inzentivize transparency measures, multilateral coordination, and targeted regimes aimed at stabilizing competition in citical technology domains.
Prof. Dr. Dr. Christian Reuter
Head of Research Group
Dr. Niklas Schörnig
Head of Research Group
Dr. Thomas Reinhold
Researcher
Liska Suckau
Researcher
Abdullah Kasim Korkusuz
Student Assistant
The research group
The goal of peace research has always been to identify early on which military technologies are particularly problematic because they exacerbate instability or violate international law and ethical standards, and to set guidelines or limits for them at an early stage through arms control. In this fashion, the Emerging Disruptive Technologies Research Group focuses on three key questions:
- What emerging technologies will be more relevant, what less, and in what form, for future military operations (analysis of technological trends), and which might be sufficiently disruptive or problematic to require regulation for ethical, legal, or security reasons?
- How must verification measures be tailored to enable the effective control of modern military technologies?
- How can new technologies themselves help to develop more reliable arms control and verification measures?
In order to obtain robust answers, the group is (1) monitoring technical trends, (2) evaluate the dangerousness of technologies, (3) identify tailored verification mechanisms, and (4) develop how to make use of these technologies.
To do so, the group is pursuing an interdisciplinary research approach that combines political science with the technical sciences. Only the combination of different perspectives can answer what can be achieved politically (and with which actors), where technological pitfalls lie, and how they can be overcome—potentially, through technology itself.
For example, while the use of AI in weapon systems can force humans out of critical decision-making processes such as target selection or engagement, and the use of autonomy in crucial functions is said to give states a significant military advantage, the question of how AI in weapon systems can be controlled remains an open one. That being said, AI can also help make arms control more effective and objective under certain conditions, such as in the evaluation of imagery from inspections or when distinguishing between a seismic event and a nuclear weapons test. The new research group at PRIF will explore precisely this area of tension as its core task.
Concrete research projects
IT specialist Thomas Reinhold and political scientist Niklas Schörnig use AI to analyse job advertisements from defence companies and government defence contractors in various countries in order to gain a better insight into current technological trends on the industrial level. Thomas Reinhold developed a software application for this purpose, which uses AI to translate and evaluate advertisements and prepare them for human analysis regarding technology assessment.
Mechanical engineer and political scientist Liska Suckau works on the understanding of military innovation, ergo the process of developing and adopting technology into the military, as a mean to draft policy advise, that is informed by the technical realities on the ground and less by hype-inflated expectations. The focus of her dissertation project is specifically on off-the-shelf-technologies and their impact on violence. In addition she has a strong focus on hardware design and robotic engineering, additive manufacturing and UGVs, to examinetheir impact on war and security and the processes of military innovation more broadly.
The group as a whole works on the generation, and analysis of a data corpora made up of national military strategies with a technological focus that discuss the innovation, research and development of military capabilities from select states. Currently the sampling includes six states (Germany, USA, UK, Japan, Australia and Turkey), whose military science and technology strategies post 2015 are being analysed by annotating technologies mentioned in those strategies according to a broad coding scheme with diverse technical categories. The aim of the project is to provide an overview of national technical preferences, to identify patterns across space and time, and to overall gain a better understanding of the trajectory in military R&D.
