A recent open access study by Benjamin Jung, Johannes Bosse and Malte Göttsche published in the leading scientific journal Nuclear Engineering and Technology investigates a novel approach to verifying North Korea’s declarations about its nuclear program. While the country’s nuclear activities have been closely monitored, significant uncertainties remain about the actual size and history of its fissile material stockpiles. In any future disarmament agreement, international inspectors may need to rely on advanced verification techniques to ensure the accuracy of North Korea’s declarations.

The study “Reconstructing North Korea’s plutonium production history with Bayesian inference-based reprocessing waste analysis“ focuses on the potential of “nuclear archaeology”—specifically, the analysis of reprocessing waste from North Korea’s 5 MWe reactor at Yongbyon. Researchers used a Bayesian inference framework to simulate how the isotopic composition of this waste could reveal the reactor’s operating history and plutonium production. By analyzing waste samples, the method can reconstruct details such as the burnup and cooling times of spent fuel batches, even when some historical data is missing or unclear. The team tested several scenarios, demonstrating that the approach can confirm correct assumptions and detect inconsistencies or false declarations. Importantly, the method can distinguish between different reactor operation histories, including the number of core discharges—a critical factor in estimating plutonium production. This capability could provide valuable insights into the early, less-documented phases of the reactor’s operation.

While the findings are based on simulations, they highlight the promise of Bayesian Reprocessing Waste Analysis as a tool for future verification efforts. The authors suggest that further research, including experimental validation with known reactor histories, is needed to refine the method for real-world application. This innovative approach could strengthen international confidence in the verification process, offering a scientific basis for assessing North Korea’s nuclear declarations and supporting broader nonproliferation goals.